![]() ![]() Their odds to win the division and to make the playoffs jumped dramatically this offseason, but their division finishing position prices are still lagging based on PFF’s simulation. #RestoreTheRoar gains popularity by the day and seems to be the only bottom-dwelling pick bettors can stomach. Let's touch on the best bets for specific division finishing positions before going into the straight forecast best bets. Few are betting on the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, New York Giants or Detroit Lions to finish anywhere but last, which creates some value if you can stomach a contrarian take. The macro takeaway is when DraftKings becomes overly aggressive to the downside outlook, value exists at any other finishing positions. (*Note: AFC North odds are from offshore.) Let’s start by calculating the difference in probability between PFF’s season-long simulation and the current odds offered by DraftKings for each team’s division finishing position. ![]() Mispriced opportunities can often be found, especially on correlated long-shot plays. Two of the best futures markets that rarely get mentioned but have been around for some time are the Division Finishing Position and Division Straight Forecast offerings. There are only a couple fluid situations remaining that will change a team's sentiment, meaning we are all but locked into current futures prices until Week 1 and forced to line shop alternate markets. NFL Division winner odds are being hammered into place, with sports betting power rankings set as we head toward training camp. ![]()
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